Gary Shilling: The Recession May Have Already Begun
July 8, 2019 by Bernice Napach
A U.S. recession “may already be underway,” and the bond market rally that began in the early 1980s is still intact, says Gary Shilling, founder of the investment advisory firm A. Gary Shilling & Co.
In his latest Insight report released just before Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report, Shilling writes that the 10-year Treasury note yield will drop to 1% in a year and the 30-year Treasury bond will drop to 2% a year after the recession starts, delivering double-digit returns. In that case, the 10-year Treasury would gain close to 12%, and the 30-year Treasury bond 14%.
The 10-year Treasury note ended Friday trading with a 2.03% yield after slipping below 2% on July 2, and the 30-year Treasury bond finished with a 2.54% yield following a decline below 2.5% on July 3. The yields of both securities bounced back following the jobs report, which led many traders and analysts to question expectations of a Fed rate cut later this month.
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